A mini split sizing calculator finds the right size ductless heat pump for a room or zone - in both BTU and tons. Enter the area and a couple of details and it recommends a standard unit size, so you neither freeze in an oversized unit nor undersize and run it flat out.
Sizing matters more for mini-splits than for window units: an oversized mini-split short-cycles and never settles into the efficient, quiet, dehumidifying run it is designed for. This aims for the right size, not the biggest.
We start near 24 BTU per square foot, then adjust for sun (plus or minus 10%) and insulation (up to plus 15% for drafty, minus 10% for well-sealed), and round to the nearest standard size (9k, 12k, 18k, 24k, 36k, 48k BTU). Tons are BTU divided by 12,000.
A 500 sq ft average room with average insulation comes to about 12,000 BTU - a 1-ton mini-split.